MOSCOW, RUSSIA BUREAU: Contributors to this article include Dmitry Ivanov and Anastasia Petrovna.

Moscow has stated that it is not obligated to assist Iran in the event of a potential U.S. attack, following President Donald Trump’s warning to Tehran regarding its nuclear ambitions.

On Monday, Trump revealed that the U.S. was engaged in direct discussions with Tehran concerning its nuclear program, which Western nations fear could lead to weapon development. Tehran, asserting that its nuclear activities are peaceful, indicated that the talks would take place in Oman through an intermediary.

Trump cautioned that if the negotiations fail, “it’ll be a very bad day for Iran.” He had previously threatened military action and secondary tariffs against Iran if an agreement on its nuclear program was not reached.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko commented that a U.S. attack on Iran would have severe regional repercussions, but clarified that Moscow would not necessarily provide support to Tehran in such a scenario. Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran, mentioned to Newsweek that Iranian leaders are aware they would be left to fend for themselves in the event of a U.S. assault. Newsweek has sought a response from the Iranian foreign ministry.

Russia and Iran have fostered close military ties, especially amid the challenges posed by U.S.-led sanctions, which have intensified since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Tehran has supplied Shahed drones to Moscow, which have significantly impacted Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Despite the signing of the Iranian–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in January, which lacks a mutual defense clause, Rudenko’s remarks highlight the limitations of this partnership in light of Trump’s threats.

During a joint appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, Trump confirmed that direct discussions were taking place between the U.S. and Iran regarding the nuclear program. Iran later clarified that these talks would be indirect, with reports indicating that U.S. officials would negotiate with Iranian representatives in Oman.

Trump expressed that reaching an agreement would be preferable to the alternative, which he described as “not something that I want to be involved with,” emphasizing the dangerous nature of the situation and reiterating that Tehran must not acquire a nuclear weapon.

Rudenko reiterated that any U.S. strike on Iran would have negative consequences for the region, while Russia would continue to offer mediation support. Azizi, a research fellow at the German think tank SWP Berlin, pointed out that despite the strengthening ties between Tehran and Moscow, the limitations of their relationship, particularly regarding direct military assistance, have always been apparent. He noted that Russia has consistently avoided entanglement in potential confrontations involving Iran and the U.S. or Israel, especially given its ongoing diplomatic interactions with the Trump administration.

Russia also values its relationships with Israel and Iran’s neighboring Arab states, Azizi added. Tehran seeks political backing from Moscow, particularly in the UN Security Council, which is why it has initiated a new trilateral approach to the nuclear issue alongside China. “Iran needs the support of both Russia and China in the Security Council more than ever. However, Iranian leaders are fully aware that they stand alone in the event of an actual attack,” Azizi concluded.

President Trump stated at the White House: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and if the talks aren’t successful, I actually think it’ll be a very bad day for Iran.” Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko emphasized that “Moscow is not obligated to provide military assistance to Tehran under the strategic partnership agreement.”

Hamidreza Azizi, from the German think tank SWP Berlin, remarked on the evident limitations of Russia’s military support for Iran, despite their close relationship over recent years.

Talks are scheduled to commence in Oman on Saturday, though details regarding participants remain unclear. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is believed to be overseeing the Iran discussions, according to CNN. Azizi noted that Iran’s objective is to secure leverage over both the U.S. and Europe, especially with the looming threat of snapback sanctions at the United Nations.