Defense experts warn that significant military advancements by both nuclear-armed neighbors since their 2019 aerial clash could lead to dangerous escalation even in limited engagement, as tensions rise following India’s accusations against Pakistan for a deadly attack in Kashmir and Prime Minister Modi‘s vow to punish those responsible “beyond their imagination.”
India and Pakistan have substantially enhanced their military capabilities since their 2019 armed confrontation, creating a more volatile environment where even limited conflict could rapidly escalate to dangerous levels, according to military experts and former officers. The nuclear-armed rivals are currently in a tense standoff after India blamed Pakistan for a deadly attack on tourists in Indian Kashmir last month, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowing punishment for those responsible “beyond their imagination.”
Both nations have acquired advanced fighter aircraft and defense systems since their 2019 clash, when India conducted air strikes inside Pakistan following a bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir. Pakistan, which has denied involvement in the recent attack but warned it will retaliate if targeted, has obtained at least 20 of China’s advanced J-10 fighter jets since 2022. India has inducted 36 French-made Rafale fighters, considered among the world’s most sophisticated aircraft, with additional orders placed for its navy. Both aircraft carry advanced beyond-visual-range missiles—the Rafale equipped with Meteor missiles and the J-10 with comparable Chinese PL-15 missiles.
“Decision makers in both states now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation than prior to 2019,” said Frank O’Donnell from the Stimson Center in Washington, noting that their previous clash occurred without nuclear weapons deployment. Military analysts suggest that while neither side would consider nuclear options unless severely threatened, even limited engagement could quickly spiral out of control. The situation is further complicated by China’s role as Pakistan’s close ally and primary military equipment supplier, with any conflict potentially serving as a real-world test between Western and Chinese military technology. “Nuclear-armed countries slugging it out is extremely dangerous,” warned Kaiser Tufail, a former Pakistani fighter pilot, recalling how the 2019 skirmish nearly escalated to multiple missile strikes before U.S. intervention de-escalated the situation.
(CP) ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN – Reported by Sanjay Patel.