WASHINGTON (CP) – A new poll reveals Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a significant 17-point advantage over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a potential Republican primary matchup, highlighting growing divisions within the GOP between traditional conservatives and Trump movement supporters across the Lone Star State.
The survey, conducted by the American Opportunity Alliance in early May, shows Paxton leading with 52 percent support compared to Cornyn’s 35 percent among 800 Republican primary voters. The poll reveals a clear split between voter groups, with “Trump Movement” supporters—representing 58 percent of the electorate—favoring Paxton by a commanding 45-point margin, while “Traditional Republicans” comprising 35 percent of voters prefer Cornyn by 27 points.
The findings reflect broader changes within Republican politics in Texas, where conservative grassroots activists have successfully challenged establishment candidates in recent elections. Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, represents the traditional wing of the GOP, while Paxton has built strong support among Trump movement voters despite facing federal investigations and an impeachment trial. The poll suggests that Trump’s influence continues to shape Republican primary voters’ preferences in major electoral contests.
Even in a three-way race including Representative Wesley Hunt, who is exploring a Senate bid, Paxton maintains his lead with 43 percent compared to Cornyn’s 27 percent and Hunt’s 14 percent. National Republican operatives have expressed concern about a potentially divisive primary that could drain resources and elevate a candidate who might face challenges in the general election. The American Opportunity Alliance, which commissioned the poll, represents major conservative donors including Paul Singer and Chuck Schwab, indicating significant interest in the race among influential Republican funding sources.